No one has long been a secret that sales of new and used cars in the Russian Federation are closely tied to the oil price curve.
Of course, in fact, when experts make up the forecast of car sales, then several key factors immediately take into account. But still, the main, determining, and the most accurate indicator is the price of «Black Gold». There is something mystical in it. And they understand the Russian authorities, and our enemies abroad. No wonder we hear the contemptuous «gas station».
And today, during a press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a decrease in Russia’s dependence on the oil and gas sector. «Russia begins to lie down from the» oil and gas needle, «said Vladimir Putin, on December 17 during a large press conference.
According to him, at the moment, 70% of the country’s budget is no longer at the expense of oil and gas revenues.
«This means that we are not fully, but starting to sink from the oil and gas needle. And if someone wants to introduce us to benzokolonka, then it no longer has real reasons, «said the head of state.
But such changes to expect in the automotive market in terms of abuse sales of cars from prices for oil yet. On the presented schedule compiled by the specialists AA Avtostat clearly visible the dependence of the domestic car market from the oscillations of oil prices. It is straightforward and correlation coefficient almost 100%.
Today we have many different forecasts from the world’s leading and domestic consulting agencies. They show different numbers. So, for example, in the strategy for the development of the car industry until 2025, the volume of the Russian market in 2.2-2.5 million is predicted by profile officials.
Specialists of the Avtostat Analytical Agency compiled their «car market forecast until 2025.» And among other parameters, the classic market capacity of the market was predicted.
Analysts have long revealed a close connection between the volumes of car sales and the price of the Barrel of Black Gold. Therefore, the domestic car market has long been «ruled» formula: «Tell me the oil price, and I will say, at what level there are volumes of car sales in the Russian Federation.»
So, according to their preliminary assessment, at the end of 2020, the automotive market capacity should be expected by about 4-5% with respect to 2019. In 2021, the growth of the market capacity is unlikely, since it directly depends on the growth of the economy. For this, in turn, a sharp increase in world oil prices are needed, at least until the average annual values of 65-70 dollars per barrel. However, in global forecasts and in the draft budget of the Russian Federation, there are no low indicators — not higher than $ 48 / barrel.
Today, an increasing number of analysts says that the world has entered the era of low oil prices.
However, the carpet capacity in the period of 2022-2025, no doubt, will increase, but the rates of this growth are unlikely to be high. According to their calculations and estimates, if in the predicted period until 2025, the average annual price of Brent oil will not exceed 53-55 dollars / barrel, then you should not expect car sales in Russia above 1500 — 1550 thousand new cars per year.
What give these calculations to ordinary motorists of our country? So far nothing good. With this low level of sales, it is possible to easily predict that the model ranks represented in Russia of foreign automakers will decrease. And before the model abundance of the beginning of the current decade, we will not return.
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Although, however, another scenario can come true. Those points of growth that makes a bet of the current government in the fulfillment of the presidential decrees will become the locomotives of the development of the economy. And she rushes a high pace. This will affect the income of citizens, and, accordingly, on the monetary capacity of the automotive market. And over time, he will grow to the values of 2012-2013. Then the variety of models in car dealership will become a reality.